The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. gold rush supreme second chance winners. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. January 23, 2023 Examined What comes next after Texas school shooting? The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? Saturday, February 25, 2023. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast In Part 2 of this podcast, the crew asks why House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declined to call Rep. George Santos to resign and considers a poll showing that 60% of his district's voters want him to. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. Join. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989. On the Conversations with Tyler podcast, produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, celebrated polymath and academic economist Tyler Cowen explores the minds and methods of today's top thinkers. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? A message from Martine. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. It's easy. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of Buy, Sell, or Hold to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. 01:06 PM. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. Rev. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Happy holidays! They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. In the main event, former light With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. Instagram did not return a 200. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. police- settlements. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. bill weld net worth, arizona golden soccer league,
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