I think its clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. "Australia is never reluctant to support and participate in American adventurism. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. Chinas leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwans leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion, Professor Fernandes says. But unlike Ukraine, where Europe is largely united in condemning Russia, Asia will not be united in condemning China.". Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. Australia, however, was a strategic asset. In a matter of minutes, Beijings Rocket Force could cripple Taiwans military, infrastructure and ports. But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. 2. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? He spent the bulk. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. Australias role in such a significant potential conflict has been the subject of intense debate in recent years. While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. But there's also bad news ahead. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . What would war with China look like for Australia? "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. But would Australia immediately take up the fight? A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. China vs Japan - Who Would Win - Army / Military Comparison Please try again later. Peter Dutton says Australia should prepare for war. So how likely is a It has been since at least Monash's time. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. Now it is China. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. What war between Australia and China could look like if Taiwan conflict And they cannot be rearmed at sea. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. "So, how would China prosecute the war? Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. In Australia do these commentators truly believe what they have been saying or is it bluff? Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. Were working to restore it. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? If the US went to war with China, who would win? - Nikkei Asia Credit:AP. But precision bombing requires the military to have access to space, where orbiting satellites help guide munitions. Are bills set to rise? . Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own. What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. Aukus: Australia's big gamble on the US over China - BBC News "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. "We have done work that shows that 'risk aversion'is the critical factor in avoiding war. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. What would war with China look like for Australia? Part 1 Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. It would not require the assent of the Governor General and is entirely in the hands of the prime minister of the day. Principles matter, he writes. I suspect the US under the current president, Joe Biden, despite his various ambiguous statements, will avoid a direct confrontation with China. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. Would Japan? If China chooses to attack the island of Taiwan, the United States could be helpless to stop it. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Mr. Xi has championed . "I hope they don't mean that, just as Britain has the Gurkhas, the Americans have us. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. "A blockade means that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft will be unable to pass. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. Why are Australian officials hinting at war with China? | CNN India and Pakistan take pains to avoid such escalation. Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel. "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. "People in those days, in the spirit of compromise and understanding, were prepared to work together, if only for a short time. Beyond 10 years, who knows? Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making.